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| Last year's winner Jean Dujardin courtesy of guardian.co.uk |
| Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln The "Commander in Chief" Why He Will Win: I don't think I have to explain this. He absolutely inhabits the role in a way that few performers could. When history looks back on Lincoln, it will be for this performance and, possibly, nothing else. He owns the film more than any other actor did this past year. This work will stand alongside his role as Daniel Plainview in There Will Be Blood as two very different, but equally impressive performances. Why He Won't Win: It seems too easy. Other actors on this list have won precursor awards in random places, so there's still a chance it could be too god to be true. | ||
| Joaquin Phoenix, The Master The "Lost Soul" Why He Will Win: While Day Lewis may have done the best overall work, Phoenix probably gave a much more complicated performance. The Master was a showcase for him, even more so than his stellar work in Walk the Line. He doesn't just fill a role here - he creates it, even without the help of dialogue alone. His face tells a story not many filmmakers could. Why He Won't Win: Again, The Master is extremely complicated for voters to grasp. Plus, Joaquin Phoenix is vocally anti-Hollywood machine, a man who pushes away accolades and damns the awards handed out, even to him. The Academy doesn't really like people that don't like them. | ||
| Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables The "Broadway Icon" Why He Will Win: It's a bombastic, showy performance that Jackman fits perfectly into. Jackman is a Broadway and musical theater veteran and playing Jean Valjean may be his best chance at an Oscar, at least, in the form of a musical. People like him and he's charming, so that helps. Why He Won't Win: The film is a bit divisive. People who love it, love it. People who don't, hate it. Didn't stop it from pulling a Best Picture nomination, but the lack of all around love and the performances he's up against draw a very sharp line in the sand. | ||
| Denzel Washington, Flight The "Problematic Pilot" Why He Will Win: He's Denzel Washington playing an anti-hero. He won his first Best Actor Oscar for playing a villain in Training Day (not that deserved, but that's another story), so it seems the Academy may like him better when he's not so clean cut. He's an A-list star who helped turn a film that could have been run-of-the-mill into a surprise thought provoker. Why He Won't Win: He hasn't won any precursor awards and his film didn't grab any other nominations. Of all the candidates, Denzel feels like the odd one out - the one that, no matter how the chips fall, has no real chance of winning. | ||
| Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook The "Optimistic Basket Case" Why He Will Win: The Weinsteins. He has the greatest Oscar lobbyist team behind him for a film that grabbed a nomination in every acting category. He transformed from comedic/action star into a moody, likeable emotional lead, from the help of his director and co-stars. It's his first nomination, too, so he's got fresh legs. Why He Won't Win: He lost at the Globes to Hugh Jackman for Best Actor in a Comedy/Musical. Though the Globes aren't good predictors, that's not a good sign. Cooper was thought to be a shoe-in for that award and he walked away empty handed, despite all the other love for Silver Linings Playbook. |
The Last Three Out: John Hawkes (The Sessions), Jack Black (Bernie), Denis Levant (Holy Motors)
My Prediction: Daniel Day Lewis
Possible Spoiler: Bradley Cooper
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