| 2012 winners Nat Faxon, Jim Rash, & Alexander Payne courtesy of latimes.com |
| Tony Kushner, Lincoln The "Pulitzer Playwright" Why He Will Win: Lincoln doesn't dumb anything down at all. It's detailed, it's interesting, and it's a great exercise in political discourse. It took a very popular book and distilled it into a very organized screenplay. Some of it may drag, but you can't say that much (if any) is wasted dialogue or movement. Why He Won't Win: Lincoln doesn't dumb anything down at all. I know, it's lazy to repeat myself. But it's true - it may be a bit too technical for Oscar voters who want to be entertained more than they want to think. Spielberg's film is dry and deliberate and Kushner's screenplay is the most ardent example of that. | ||
| Chris Terrio, Argo The "Surprise Success" Why He Will Win: Argo is a formidable piece of screenwriting, especially since it is about making movies. Kind of. Regardless, Hollywood eats that up. Terrio has very random experience in the film industry, from directing to technical to writing, which makes him a nice story, especially since he's had a relatively short career so far. Why He Won't Win: The sudden waterfall of love for Argo may be a little late. Director Ben Affleck wasn't nominated for Best Director, and that hurts Terrio's chances more than you think. Plus, of the five films up for this award, many may view it as the "easiest" to pen, since it's definitely the most audience-friendly. | ||
| David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook The "Indie to Hollywood Writer" Why He Will Win: After spending years making weirder indie films, Russell finally got Hollywood accolades with The Fighter. Now, he returns to the Hollywood friendly formula, this time working with a romantic comedy. It's a film about feelings and relationships, which always bodes well for a screenwriter, if it works. Thanks to his cast, it does. Why He Won't Win: It's just that - a romantic comedy. When you're up against two political films and two epic stories with very young protagonists, it's tougher to sell the "pretty people have problems" idea. Russell has a better chance at Best Director than he does at this award. | ||
| David Magee, Life of Pi The "Prestige Writer" Why He Will Win: It's a movie about a young man on a boat with a tiger and, somehow, it isn't incredibly boring. It's one of the most beloved novels of the past 30 years and he's working with Ang Lee, one of the more respected directors in the industry. The film garnered 11 nominations, which means the Academy likes it a lot. Why He Won't Win: It's a little sparse on action and dialogue. While it isn't terribly boring, it's also lacking in true forward motion. While Ang Lee's involvement helps him, it also hurts him, in that many will assume that Lee is the sole reason the film is even watchable. I tend to agree. | ||
| Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild The "New Kid on the Block" Why He Will Win: I want to say "because Beasts is amazing" and be done with it, but let's continue. Zeitlin's story is the most original of the nominees and he's the nominee with the freshest legs. The film steamrolled Sundance last year and somehow kept the momentum to get him this nomination, plus Best Director and Picture. People love this film. Why He Won't Win: People will never associate their experience with this film with the writing. Or even the directing. It will all focus on his young star Quvenzhané Wallis and the rest will just lose focus. You'd be surprised how much missing out on a nomination for Best Original Score also hurts Zeitlin's chances here, which was one of the best parts about the film. |
The Last Three Out: William Nicholson (Les Miserables), Tom Stoppard (Anna Karenina), Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain (Rust and Bone)
My Prediction: Chris Terrio
Possible Spoiler: Tony Kushner
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