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| 2012 winner Woody Allen courtesy of net4surf.com |
| Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty The "King of Controversy" Why He Will Win: The script was essentially finished, then he had to re-write it when history dictated it. Zero Dark Thirty is layer upon layer of conspiracy and procedure, all centered around one of the most extraordinarily written females the screen has ever seen. In all the controversy, Boal was somehow spared and still earned this nod. Why He Won't Win: Like I mention above, this film has a bit of controversy surrounding it. So much so that director Kathryn Bigelow missed out on a nomination. Since Boal was left untouched to appear in this category, he has to suffer the stigma surrounding the film, which certainly may hurt his chances. | ||
| Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained The "Hollywood Bad Boy" Why He Will Win: He won the Critics Choice Award and the Golden Globe (which doesn't distinguish between original and adapted, so he actually beat some other great screenplays, too). While he has always been respected as a filmmaker, he's been even more respected as a screenwriter, and this is his best work in a while. Why He Won't Win: It's not as controversial as Zero Dark Thirty, but there is a still a little chaos surrounding Tarantino and his seeming obsessive use of the "N word." The film is packed with profanity and violence and, while it has won the precursors, the Academy isn't always as willing to compromise their morality. | ||
| Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom The "Quirk Masters" Why He Will Win: Because Moonrise Kingdom is a complicated quilt of characters that is a definitive Wes Anderson work. Anderson has been nominated here before, but this film is much more loved in the community than his others, though it didn't score a Best Picture nomination. Why He Won't Win: Anderson's films have always been a little too quirky and strange for the Academy, and Moonrise Kingdom is no different. It relies a lot on set and production design, which isn't taken into account when judging the screenplays. Plus, it isn't about terrorism or slavery or drug dependence or dying. It's a bit lighter, to say the least. | ||
| John Gatins, Flight The "Mainstream Talent" Why He Will Win: Easily the most mainstream of the films in this list, Gatins managed to take what looked like a formulaic Hollywood movie and made it into something more. Director Robert Zemeckis hadn't had a real critical success in a while, but he has Gatins to thank for that this year. Why He Won't Win: It didn't grab a Best Picture of Best Director nomination. In the same way that Benh Zeitlin won't get the accolades for Beasts of the Southern Wild, Gatins and Zemeckis will never get the glory for Flight - it will all be pointed at its star, Denzel Washington. | ||
| Michael Haneke, Amour The "Minimalist Master" Why He Will Win: He's Michael freaking Haneke. He's been making brilliant subversive films for a long time, finally having a film get some Academy love in 2009 with The White Ribbon, grabbing a Best Foreign Film and Cinematography nominee. With Amour, he has dialed down the strange, but amped up the unflinching approach with an uncompromising look and death, dying, and, of course, love. He also got surprise nominations for Director and Picture, so maybe this is his year. Why He Won't Win: The film isn't exactly a crowd pleaser. Plus, it's a foreign film, so the odds are already against it. Only five foreign films have ever won a screenplay Oscar, the last coming in 2002 for Pedro Almodovar's Talk to Her. He hasn't even been nominated for any precursors, either. |
The Last Three Out: Rian Johnson (Looper), Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master), Reid Carolin (Magic Mike)
My Prediction: Quentin Tarantino
Possible Spoiler: Mark Boal
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