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| 2012 winner Michael Hazanavicius courtesy of selectspecs.com |
| Steven Spielberg, Lincoln The "Master" Why He Will Win: It's his best film in a long time and was really a director/writer picture. Lincoln could have been extraordinarily boring (it was at moments), but Spielberg's hand and the performance from Daniel Day Lewis made the film as good as it was.The film grabbed the most nominations, with 12. Why He Won't Win: It's not the only film in this field that is, for lack of a better word, a "chore" to sit through. While this work is seen by the industry as his best in years, he also wasn't recognized in many precursor awards (at least as the winner). | ||
| David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook The "Outsider" Why He Will Win: Russell has recently started to play well with the Hollywood pundits, after years of making quirky indie films. Silver Linings Playbook grabbed a Best Picture nomination, plus a nomination in all four acting categories, which is a rare feat. So, obviously the Academy loved the film. Why He Won't Win: It's a romantic comedy up against some heavyweight epic films. It's topic doesn't, on the surface, hold the weight of his competitors and it's rare to see a director turn that into gold. | ||
| Ang Lee, Life of Pi The "Visionary" Why He Will Win: It's easily the most beautiful film on the list and it took a master craftsman to bring it to screen. He has been nominated twice before, winning in 2005 for Brokeback Mountain. Life of Pi grabbed 11 nominations, most in the technical categories, which points to "behind the camera" work. Why He Won't Win: The movie didn't pick up any acting nominations and has very limited narrative. Essentially, Lee directs one person and a CGI tiger for almost the entire film, so any may feel his sparse dealing with actors is a mark against him. It's the anti-Silver Linings approach. | ||
| Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild The "Newcomer" Why He Will Win: Whew. That's tough. It's a gorgeous film with a wonderful lead performance that feels like a fairy tale. He's the most surprising of the nominees by far and everybody loves an underdog story. It somehow managed to have staying power since its premiere at the Sundance Film Festival, so obviously there's a lot of love for the film. Why He Won't Win: He's up against some of the biggest directors in the game and this is his first nomination. He's only 30 years old and, while Beasts is a wonderful film, he is no Orson Welles. The Academy may throw nominations at youth, but it rarely rewards them. | ||
| Michael Haneke, Amour The "Auteur" Why He Will Win: He's one of the most intriguing world directors of the past 25 years and never really received the recognition he deserved. While Zeitlin may be the biggest surprise, Haneke's nomination was, while deserved, quite unexpected. Amour grabbed a surprising five nominations, while is rare for a foreign film. Why He Won't Win: It's still a foreign film. Haneke's film catalog is also extremely difficult to swallow, with most films being exercises in depravity and pain - looks at the human psyche most filmmakers would never approach. |
The Last Three Out: Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master), Ben Affleck (Argo), Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
My Prediction: Steven Spielberg
Possible Spoiler: Ang Lee
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