| Last year's winner Octavia Spencer courtesy of rootmagazineonline.com |
| Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables The "Broken Down Starlet" Why She Will Win: She's a Hollywood sweetheart that is the highlight of a film that isn't as beloved as was hoped. She's the best part about the film and gets the signature song from the classic musical, bearing her soul with tears and all the messy snot that comes with it. She's won the majority of the precursor awards and all but has this award wrapped up. Why She Won't Win: As I mentioned above, the film isn't adored as much as was expected. The live singing and spectacle has cooled off quite a bit - there's a chance she peaked too early. It's a small chance...but it's still a chance. | ||
| Amy Adams, The Master The "Voice of Reason" Why She Will Win: She's in a film so male dominated and focused on the concept of masculinity and individuality, yet still manages to hold her own. She's been nominated in this same category three times since 2005 (Junebug, Doubt, The Fighter), so there's a chance the Academy feels like she's paid her dues. Why She Won't Win: Like I've said before, it's a weird movie. If anybody has a chance to get recognized, it's probably Joaquin Phoenix for his lead performance. Even he has very little chance. It's too complicated a film for the Academy to love. | ||
| Sally Field, Lincoln The "First Influential Lady" Why She Will Win: While Daniel Day-Lewis inhabits Abraham Lincoln, Field manages to offer a very nice foil to her extremely talented companion. She plays Mary Todd not as the crazy woman to which she has since been relegated - she plays her as a concerned mother and wife, holding her own against some truly brilliant performers. Why She Won't Win: Field's performance is really the only one that doesn't get the service of the brilliant script much. While Tony Kushner spends endless time explaining the politics and interplay between the men of the day, Mary Todd gets the less impactful lines and, to be honest, some of the worst ones. | ||
| Helen Hunt, The Sessions The "Necessary Helper" Why She Will Win: It serves as a nice comeback for Hunt, who won the Lead Actress Oscar for As Good As It Gets. Her role as a sex therapist is easily the strangest of this set of nominees and she grabbed the only nomination from the tiny film. She has made some pretty bad films over the past fifteen years - this is a chance to get back in the game. Why She Won't Win: John Hawkes didn't get nominated for his universally adored lead performance in the film, which means the Academy wasn't crazy about it. It's a risque topic that isn't as warm and fuzzy as the Academy tends to lean toward, so Hunt's work may go unrecognized. | ||
| Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook The "Mixed Up Mother" Why She Will Win: Silver Linings Playbook has one ace in its corner: Harvey Weinstein. The master award campaigner will probably push harder for his two leads, but Weaver grabbed this unexpected nomination on a combination of luck and lobbying. Still, she's a dark horse in a film that is slowly creeping up to the front of the pack. Why She Won't Win: Like I said, Weaver is the surprise from this group. Her role doesn't really stand out as much as her fellow nominees in this film and she gets lost in the shuffle quite a bit. |
The Last Three Out: Samantha Barkes (Les Miserables), Ann Dowd (Compliance), Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
My Prediction: Anne Hathaway
Possible Spoiler: Sally Field
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