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| Last year's winner Christopher Plummer courtesy of indiatimes.com |
| Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained The "Moral Center" Why He Will Win: He's won a number of the precursor awards, when most assumed Leonardo Dicaprio would be the break out supporting actor from the film. He feels like the morality in the film, despite the fact that he's a bounty hunter. Waltz won the Oscar for Inglourious Basterds, playing a horrible person and now gets accolades for playing a "hero," so that's a nice feel good angle. Why He Won't Win: He won too recently. There is no nominee head and shoulders above the rest, so rewarding someone who has won within the past three years is not a likelihood. | ||
| Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master The "Father Figure" Why He Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson's film will melt your brain, thanks to Hoffman and lead actor Joaquin Phoenix. The Master is a performance-driven film, with two men playing against and with each other for the duration of the film. Lancaster Dodd is a confounding character and Hoffman embodies him. Dodd serves as both a mentor and father for Phoenix's Freddie Quells, but also shifts into enemy effortlessly. Why He Won't Win: It's a weird movie. Much like Tree of Life last year was generally praised, yet passed over for the most part in awards season, The Master is recognized as one of the year's best, but many can't explain why. It may go down in history as a timeless classic, but the Academy wasn't ready to fully accept it quite yet. IN a way, the acting nominations were the Academy's way of saying "we get it." | ||
| Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln The "Passionate Politician" Why He Will Win: He's the fiery supporter in a film otherwise devoid of anger and rage. While Day Lewis owns the film with his quiet, controlled portrayal of the title president, Jones chews up the scenery with his frustrated opinions of his colleagues in Congress and their short-sided points of view. It doesn't hurt playing a real person, either. Why He Won't Win: Lincoln, though still the frontrunner, has won surprisingly few precursor awards, including Jones. This is a loaded field, all being previous winners, like I already said. Unfortunately, of all the nominees, Tommy Lee Jones still feels out of place, since his Oscar came from a performance that has been retroactively devalued (The Fugitive). | ||
| Alan Arkin, Argo The "Comedic Injection" Why He Will Win: Along with John Goodman, he's the comedic necessity Ben Affleck's film needs. While Affleck drives the action, Arkin, Goodman, and Bryan Cranston provide the moments of true gold in Argo. Arkin not only plays funny, but he plays emotionally strong, offering the moments of true honesty drawn from Affleck's character. Why He Won't Win: It's not a huge part. It's an important part, but he isn't as good if he doesn't pair with Goodman, and vice versa. In a way, this nomination is for both of them, which means voters may not view it as a singularly great performance. | ||
| Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook The "Negative Influence" Why He Will Win: This is his best work in a long time, after years of making terrible comedies and weak attempts at mob movie comebacks. He plays against fellow nominees Jacki Weaver and Bradley Cooper very well, providing a necessary foil that delivers a deeper look into the lead actor's psyche. Why He Won't Win: Silver Linings Playbook grabbed a nomination in every acting category and, while that sounds like a positive, it really feels more like a gap-filling exercise. While De Niro deserves to be here, the only member of the cast with a true shot at the Oscar is Jennifer Lawrence. The collateral damage will probably hit De Niro hardest in such a loaded field. |
The Last Three Out: Leonardo Dicaprio (Django Unchained), Javier Bardem (Skyfall), Matthew McConaughey (Magic Mike)
My Prediction: Tommy Lee Jones
Possible Spoiler: Christoph Waltz
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