 |
| Last year's winner Meryl Streep courtesy of watcherswatch.com |
| Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty The "Unstoppable Force" Why She Will Win: It's a rarely seen female role, not dependent on any male counterparts to function. A lot of that is due to director Kathryn Bigelow and writer Mark Boal, but Chastain blew it out of the water. She gave 3+ phenomenal performances last year, being nominated for The Help and now she has hopped up to the leading category. She is inarguably the best thing in an already brilliant film. Why She Won't Win: Zero Dark Thirty can't catch a break. The controversy surrounding it infected the director race, knocking Bigelow out as a nominee. There are no Academy people verbally pulling for Chastain, seen more fully with Lawrence winning almost everything up to this point. Two months ago, this was Chastain vs. Lawrence. Now it's a pipe dream. | ||
| Emmanuelle Riva, Amour The "Broken Down Soulmate" Why She Will Win: She's the oldest woman to ever be nominated for Best Actress in a film inherently about, well, getting old. It's not easy to play someone who is essentially a shell of a person, especially for such a minimalist director like Michael Haneke. Her nomination alone is amazing, but Amour pulled three other nominations, meaning the Academy liked it more than expected. Why She Won't Win: A bleak film rarely wins you awards, especially when your performance isn't epic. Riva may have inhabited the role, but she isn't showy - she shouldn't be to succeed in the role. Hollywood respects work like this, but rarely hands it a statuette. | ||
| Naomi Watts, The Impossible The "Survivor" Why She Will Win: Watts kind of came out of nowhere. The Impossible didn't really get precursor consideration due to a late release date, but somehow here she is. If I had to pick a dark horse, it would be her, giving a physically and emotionally demanding performance as a mother looking for her other children and husband after a tsunami with her eldest son. Plus, "based on a true story" always helps. Why She Won't Win: Nobody saw this film coming and it didn't grab any other nominations. It hasn't won any precursor awards and, though Watts is universally praised for her work, she just hasn't had the press and public backing. | ||
| Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild The "Fresh Face" Why She Will Win: If you've seen Beasts of the Southern Wild, you'll know why. It is impossible not to fall in love with this little girl and want her to win everything. All the time. This little film that lives and dies by Wallis and her uncannily mature and dreamlike performance as Hushpuppy. She's the youngest Best Actress nominee ever and it's really a magnificent story and film. Why She Won't Win: Just as youth can work for you, it can work against you. Nobody here has won an Oscar yet, so the Academy is more likely to give it to a veteran who has turned in a longer sheet of work. Plus, there have been complaints that she isn't "acting." A child this young has no method. It's more a director success than acting. Apparently that's important. | ||
| Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook The "Wild Child" Why She Will Win: She's won almost everything up to this point, so why should the Oscar be any different? Silver Linings Playbook is the rare film that grabbed a nomination in every acting category and Lawrence is the stand out. It's a big role that gets to shift and flow. She gets to scream, cry, be funny, and be touching. The role has it all. Why She Won't Win: I would use the "she's too young" line here, but that applies elsewhere. I suppose people could get tired of her. Her monologue hosting "Saturday Night Live" jokingly called out the other nominees and, while it's a JOKE, the Academy can get whiny about that type of thing. I'm grasping at straws here. This is hers to lose. |
The Last Three Out: Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone), Keira Knightley (Anna Karenina), Helen Mirren (Hitchcock)
My Prediction: Jennifer Lawrence
Possible Spoiler: Naomi Watts
Hiç yorum yok:
Yorum Gönder