 |
| Scene from last year's winner The Artist courtesy of nytimes.com |
| Argo The "Ben Affleck" Movie Why It Will Win: There couldn't be a better nickname for this movie than what I chose. We keep pointing to director Ben Affleck being left out of the Best Director list, but it's a small subset of voters - around 300, to be exact. He won the Directors Guild Award and Argo has swept every guild - Golden Globes, SAG, PGA. It also took home the BAFTA. It's the least divisive of the films and, like is always the case, it's not about how many people love your movie - it's about how few hate it. Nobody hates Argo like they hate the other films on this list. Why It Won't Win: If it does, it will be the first Best Picture since Driving Miss Daisy in 1989 to win without a Best Director nomination. The numbers don't lie, but since the voting process has changed, it throws everything into the blender and forces us to start over. | ||
| Lincoln The "Thinking Man's" Movie Why It Will Win: It's Steven Spielberg's best film in over a decade thanks, in part, to Tony Kushner's brilliant screenplay. It's been the assumed favorite for most of the season, even without precursor wins. It has the most nominations (12) of any film and will no doubt take home at least the Best Actor award. It's a historical epic that focuses on our country's most beloved president, so maybe there will be a bit of flag-waving. Why It Won't Win: It's dry and many view it as too boring. It eschews Spielberg's typical crowdpleasing tendencies for a darker, much more internal view of Lincoln's presidency and what he had to do to get his amendment passed. While that makes it a better film, it doesn't make it a typical Academy choice for gold. | ||
| Beasts of the Southern Wild The "Sundance Darling" Movie Why It Will Win: The little film that could debuted at Sundance to rave reviews and just kept on trucking the whole year, eventually ending up here. It's headlined by a child performance that earned a Best Actress nomination, not to mention a young filmmaker who slipped into the list of Best Director nominees. It's a magical film - a modern fairy tale that feels completely original. Why It Won't Win: It's too small and not enough people saw it. Box office numbers count, whether we want to admit it or not. The film had a limited release and, though it somehow ended up here, it's got the cards stacked against it heavily. | ||
| Amour The "Foreign Gutwrencher" Movie Why It Will Win: Director Michael Haneke doesn't really make "Oscar movies." While I'm sure he didn't set out for this to be one, exactly, what did he expect? He made a film about old white people for the Academy, which is made up of old white people. The subtitles are just an addendum. It's a heartfelt film about love and loss. It's not titled "Love" for nothing. It grabbed more nominations than expected, so they all must like it. Why It Won't Win: Foreign language films already have one giant strike against them. Not to mention, it's exceedingly bleak. There's no showiness about the film. This isn't Terms of Endearment. This is dark, it's painful, and it's not meant to be "enjoyed." Not really the Academy's typical go-to film. | ||
| Zero Dark Thirty The "Controversial History" Movie Why It Will Win: Because it's the best movie of the year, that's why. Okay...I can't make that statement, having not seen a few of these yet, but it's a brilliant look at a very important time in our country's history that refuses to clean up the edges. Kathryn Bigelow is one of our generation's most talented, yet most ignored directors and here she and screenwriter Mark Boal have given the world a near masterpiece. Why It Won't Win: Whew. Where do I start. I'm surprised it even got into the list of nominees, given how angry the protests against it have been.The difference between Zero Dark Thirty and Bigelow's Best Picture winner The Hurt Locker is solely in subject matter. The two films have similar themes about dedication and loss, despite success. But while her previous film focused on a likeable soldier, this film focuses on a time in our country's history that is not easily deciphered. | ||
| Silver Linings Playbook The "Acting Gauntlet" Movie Why It Will Win: It was nominated in all four acting categories, plus Adapted Screenplay and Director. That's an impressive feat. It's the "feelings" movie of the group here, essentially boiling down to a romantic comedy, however strange it may be. It features two young stars paired with some likeable veterans in supporting roles. And they've had no problem parading director David O. Russell's son's illness out to push up sympathy and make it easier to relate to. Why It Won't Win: There are criticisms that it simplifies mental illness too much. I disagree, but that stigma is already in the public perception (yet, in 2001 A Beautiful Mind won despite turning schizophrenia into nothing more than a dramatic quirk). I'm also not entirely sure there isn't still an unspoken dislike for David O. Russell, who has had very public fights with some major stars, i.e. George Clooney. Plus, it lost the SAG Ensemble Award, which should have been a walk in the park victory for a film like this. | ||
| Life of Pi The "Technical Masterpiece" Movie Why It Will Win: There are very few live action films that manage to use 3-D to its advantage, but Life of Pi is one of them. Director Ang Lee's film centers around faith and survival, which are generally sticking points for audiences. It was nominated in every technical category, racking up 11 nominations altogether, second only to Lincoln (12). Since Affleck was left out of Best Director, Ang Lee seems to have become the default frontrunner. Why It Won't Win: No acting nominations and almost no precursor wins for the film. Lee grabbed some director wins, but not nearly enough to give the film a major boost. The film itself drags at moments, too, despite the special effects. It's slow and somewhat complex at moments, regardless of how simple the film feels. | ||
| Django Unchained The "Revenge Fantasy (Part II)" Movie Why It Will Win: Writer/director Quentin Tarantino's last film Inglourious Basterds was a revenge fantasy for Jews set during World War II. That film was also nominated for Best Picture, and deservedly so. This time, he followed a similar concept, but set it in the confederate south and set his sights on slavery. As with any Quentin Tarantino film, you will, at the very least, be heartily entertained. It's packed full of stars and features the usual Tarantino wit. Why It Won't Win: It's a touchy topic that begs to be controversial. It also suffered from a release date that hovered around some nationwide tragedy involving assault weapons - Django Unchained is extremely violent, so the Academy's view may be a bit tarnished. Tarantino didn't pull a Best Director nomination either and, while it grabbed a Supporting Actor nomination for Christoph Waltz, expected nominee Leonardo Dicaprio fell short. | ||
| Les Miserables The "Bombastic Hit-Miss" Movie Why It Will Win: The Academy loves big, showy movies and rewarded director Tom Hooper the last time he gave them an "Oscar movie" (The King's Speech). Les Miserables comes from one of the most beloved musicals of all time and is packed with an A-list cast that sings live (WOO!!). Hugh Jackman pulled a Best Actor nomination, alongside Anne Hathaway's nomination for Supporting Actress, for which she is a shoe-in for victory. Why It Won't Win: It's the least critically loved of the films. There are lots of folks who are lukewarm on it and possibly more who flat out hate the film. The direction has been viewed as sloppy and misguided and Russell Crowe has been aggressively panned for his work in the film. It's this year's Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. |
The Last Three Out: Moonrise Kingdom, The Master, Skyfall
My Prediction: Argo
Possible Spoiler: Lincoln
Hiç yorum yok:
Yorum Gönder